China has achieved an unprecedented trade surplus of nearly $1 trillion in 2024, as its exports overwhelmed imports on an extraordinary scale. This massive surplus, announced by the General Administration of Customs on Monday, has positioned China at the forefront of global manufacturing, echoing a pattern last seen by the United States post-World War II.
China’s exports surged to $3.58 trillion last year, while imports amounted to $2.59 trillion, resulting in a surplus of $990 billion—breaking the previous record of $838 billion set in 2022. This surplus is the largest in the world over the past century when adjusted for inflation, far surpassing trade surpluses from other industrial giants such as Germany, Japan, and the United States.
Despite facing a trade deficit in natural resources like oil, China’s dominance in manufactured goods contributed to 10% of the country’s GDP. This compares to the U.S.’s reliance on trade surpluses in manufactured goods, which peaked at 6% during World War I.
December’s strong export performance, including shipments likely rushed to the U.S. ahead of incoming tariffs from President-elect Donald Trump’s administration, propelled China to a new record of $104.8 billion in surplus for the month.
China’s trade strategy has been focused on reducing its dependency on foreign imports while aggressively growing its manufacturing sector. The country’s “Made in China 2025” initiative, a $300 billion program aimed at advancing high-tech industries, has propelled China to become the world’s largest exporter of cars, surpassing countries like Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and Germany. Chinese companies now produce nearly all of the world’s solar panels and have started to compete with aerospace giants Airbus and Boeing by manufacturing their own commercial jetliners.
Although exports have bolstered China’s economy, the country is grappling with a slowing domestic economy. A collapse in the housing market has left millions of workers unemployed, while consumer confidence has plummeted, with many reluctant to spend on imports or domestic goods. This has contributed to a cautious approach towards spending, as households and businesses face economic uncertainty.
The record trade surplus signals China’s enduring economic strength in manufacturing, but it also brings tension with trade partners. Countries around the world have imposed tariffs in response to the overwhelming flow of Chinese goods, with China retaliating in kind. As tensions rise, the global trade landscape remains increasingly volatile, with the potential for a broader trade conflict to further impact the global economy.
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