The global shipping industry is poised for a record-breaking year in 2025, with newbuilding deliveries expected to reach historic highs across various vessel sectors. Despite continued geopolitical uncertainties and market volatility, analysts are focusing on tonnage supply as the one relatively stable factor driving growth.
The dry bulk sector is set for significant expansion, with 541 bulk carriers scheduled for delivery in 2025, totaling 38.33 million deadweight tons (dwt). This marks an increase of 51 vessels and 4.49 million dwt compared to 2024, making 2025 the year with the highest vessel count since 2016 and the largest deadweight tonnage since 2021.
Among the various vessel classes, the Ultramax, Supramax, and Handysize segments will see the highest activity, with 196 and 146 deliveries, respectively. The Kamsarmax and Panamax segments will follow with 121 vessels, while the Capesize segment will add 40 ships to the fleet. Despite a decline in dry bulk orders in 2024, the sector maintains a relatively strong momentum from the previous year’s surge in orders.
The product tanker segment is set to experience an extraordinary boost, with 179 vessels totaling 12.09 million dwt expected for delivery in 2025. This surge contrasts sharply with the 49 vessels delivered in 2024, which accounted for just 3.37 million dwt. In fact, 2025 is expected to mark the highest delivery figures for product tankers since 2009, after the lowest dwt deliveries for the segment in 2024, which saw the smallest deliveries since 2001.
According to BRS Shipbrokers, the trend is expected to continue into 2026, with MR2 tankers leading the deliveries, followed by LR2 tankers. For 2025, projections include the delivery of 100 MR2 and 55 LR2 tankers, with deliveries in 2026 rising to 139 MR2 and 77 LR2 tankers.
In contrast to the robust growth in dry bulk and product tankers, the crude tanker sector is set for relatively modest growth. Only 43 crude tankers, totaling 7.15 million dwt, are expected to be delivered in 2025. While this marks an improvement over the record-low deliveries of 17 vessels (2.52 million dwt) in 2024, 2025 will still see the second-lowest deadweight tonnage deliveries and the lowest vessel count since 2015.
Among crude tankers, Suezmax vessels will lead the segment, with 30 deliveries expected, surpassing the five-year average of 22 vessels. The VLCC and Aframax segments will see more subdued deliveries, with only five VLCCs and eight Aframaxes slated for delivery in 2025.
Looking further ahead, BRS Shipbrokers forecasts an uptick in crude tanker deliveries for 2026, with VLCCs expected to outpace Suezmax tankers that year. In 2027, the forecast is for 43 VLCCs to enter service, compared to 39 Suezmaxes.
The supply fundamentals in the global shipping market have been further complicated by limited vessel recycling activity in recent years. Despite opportunities for recycling, current market conditions and pricing dynamics at recycling yards, along with a robust secondhand market, continue to incentivize the sale of tonnage for trading rather than demolition.
However, with new sanctions now in effect, analysts expect an increase in tanker demolitions this year. These sanctions could spur the recycling of older vessels, affecting supply and demand dynamics in the industry.
2025 is set to be a landmark year for newbuilding deliveries, with significant growth in the dry bulk and product tanker sectors, while the crude tanker market remains relatively subdued. The increase in deliveries across various segments highlights the ongoing resilience of the global shipping industry, even in the face of global challenges.
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