Roki Sasaki’s splitter is quickly gaining recognition as one of the most effective pitches in baseball, drawing comparisons to some of the most baffling pitches ever thrown. While not a knuckleball, Sasaki’s splitter shares a similar unpredictability, breaking in multiple directions with minimal spin, making it nearly impossible for batters to predict.
The story of Sasaki’s rise is reminiscent of R.A. Dickey’s breakout season over a decade ago. Dickey’s knuckleball, which was thrown at speeds exceeding 80 mph, defied expectations and led to a Cy Young Award in 2012, making him the only knuckleballer to ever win baseball’s highest honor. Now, Sasaki seems to be pushing the boundaries of pitching further, with his splitter showing rare characteristics that set it apart from anything seen before.
Sasaki’s Dominance in Spring Training
Sasaki has already showcased his talent during the spring training games with the Los Angeles Dodgers. In his second outing in Arizona this Tuesday, Sasaki delivered another impressive performance, pitching four scoreless innings, allowing just one hit, and striking out two against the Cleveland Guardians.
In his first start, Sasaki threw his splitter 18 times, generating eight swings and inducing seven whiffs, as per Baseball Savant. His second outing featured a similar performance, with 11 splitters thrown, resulting in four swings and three whiffs. With an astounding 83.3% whiff rate across his first two games, it is clear that batters have yet to figure out how to handle Sasaki’s splitter.
A Pitch Unlike Any Other
What sets Sasaki’s splitter apart is its unpredictability. The pitch has left MLB’s Statcast system, the advanced pitch-tracking tool, struggling to identify it accurately. Statcast, which records metrics like velocity, movement, and spin rate, initially misidentified Sasaki’s splitters as sliders, changeups, and curveballs before correcting itself mid-game.
The reason for this confusion lies in the pitch’s bizarre movement. In one instance, Sasaki threw two consecutive splitters to batter Tyler Freeman. The first broke eight inches glove-side for a swinging strike, resembling a slider, while the second only broke one inch for a called strike, showing a much less exaggerated movement. In his prior at-bat, Sasaki had thrown another splitter that broke eight inches arm-side. The variance in his pitch’s movement is almost unheard of, with only the knuckleball historically showing similar drastic breaks in opposite directions.
Spin Rate: A Key to the Pitch’s Effectiveness
The success of Sasaki’s splitter can largely be attributed to its extremely low spin rate. In his previous start, Sasaki averaged a mere 518 rpm (revolutions per minute) on his splitter, and 575 rpm in his most recent outing. For context, the median splitter rpm for all pitches in Major League Baseball last year was 1,326, and the lowest recorded rpm for any splitter in a game last season was 577 rpm. Sasaki’s splitter, with its spin rate closer to that of a knuckleball, generates movement that is not typical of a standard splitter.
Sasaki’s splitter also features an unusually high vertical drop, even more so than any other splitter in MLB last season. This movement is further amplified by the pitch’s ability to break in multiple directions, making it one of the most unpredictable pitches in the game. While other pitchers like Emmanuel Ramirez of the Toronto Blue Jays had splitters that consistently moved in one direction, Sasaki’s is far more erratic, keeping hitters guessing even when they can see the pitch coming.
A Future Full of Potential
Before Sasaki signed with the Dodgers, some questioned whether he could succeed in Major League Baseball with just two primary pitches — a fastball and a splitter. However, Sasaki has proven that his arsenal may not need to be as expansive as initially thought. His splitter is so unpredictable that hitters struggle to even recognize it, and when combined with his upper-90s fastball, Sasaki is positioning himself as one of the most dynamic pitchers in the league.
With the announcement that Sasaki will make his MLB debut in the upcoming Tokyo Series, baseball fans are eagerly anticipating what he will bring to the mound. His unique combination of pitch movement and velocity makes him a standout, akin to a modern-day knuckleballer with the ability to throw in the high 90s. If his spring training performances are any indication, Sasaki’s splitter could very well become one of the most feared pitches in baseball, setting the stage for an extraordinary career.
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